RE-Alliance congratulates the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) on its Draft 2022 Integrated System Plan (Draft ISP). The Draft ISP is excellent news for those hoping to see a fast transformation of the electricity generation sector and the broader economy.
For the first time, energy industry stakeholders, surveyed in the development of the Draft ISP, consider the Step Change scenario as the most likely scenario to eventuate by 2050. Under the Step Change scenario “domestic and international action rapidly increases to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement, to limit global temperature rise to well below 2° compared to pre-industrial levels”.
Under the Draft Optimal Development Path, by 2050 the National Electricity Market (NEM) will see:
- Double the delivered electricity to industry and homes per year to replace much of the gas and petrol currently consumed in transport, industry, office and domestic use.
- Existing coal plants retire two to three times faster than anticipated. Modelling suggests that all brown coal and over two-thirds of black coal generation could withdraw by 2032.
- Nine times the amount of wind and solar farms.
- Nearly five times the capacity of rooftop solar, and substantial growth in home batteries.
- significant investment in storage including big batteries, and pumped hydro.
The Draft Plan identifies 10,000 km of new transmission to connect renewable developments and deliver renewable energy to homes, schools and workplaces across the grid. Investment in new generation and transmission lines will deliver net market benefits of $29 billion to 2050.
These actionable and future ISP projects are essential for rapid decarbonisation and meeting our climate obligations.
Approximately $12.5 billion in transmission projects are identified as actionable with further significant expenditure foreshadowed for 11 future transmission lines starting after 2028.